ACADSTAFF UGM

CREATION
Title : Climate Change Detection Using Bayesian Change Point Method for Improving the Traditional Cropping Calendar in DIY Province Indonesia
Author :

Dr. Drs. Gunardi, M.Si. (1) Dr. Fajar Adi Kusumo, S.Si., M.Si. (2) Dr. Irwan Endrayanto Aluicius, S.Si., M.Sc. (3) Dr. Herni Utami, S.Si., M.Si. (4) Ir. Mulyono, M.S. (5)
Date : 1 2016
Keyword : Pranoto mangso, Poisson Process, Bayesian Inference, change point, MCMC methods Pranoto mangso, Poisson Process, Bayesian Inference, change point, MCMC methods
Abstract : “Pranoto mongso” or provision of the season is an agricultural activities calendar based of the traditional knowledge and local wisdom. The calendar includes various aspects of phenology and other natural phenomena which was used as the guidance not only in farming activities but also in disasters mitigation (drought, crop bullies attack, flood, etc.) that may arise at certain times. However, due to some climate anomalies, the precision of the cropping prediction on this calendar is no longer valid. In this paper, we consider the change point phenomena to improve the weather prediction in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY) Province as the adaptation of the climate change. From the fact that the observations are solely devoted to one event only, i.e. the rainfall, we assume that the rainfall events follow the Poisson process. In this case, we will calculate the rain probability when the rainfall is above 8 mm per day. Our analysis is based on the change point method that was done by using a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The Bayesian approach was used for estimating the change point parameters. We use Gibbs sampling algorithm, which is one of the MCMC algorithm, to complete the Bayesian analysis. We consider case studies in four regencies of DIY Province (Bantul, Gunung Kidul, Sleman, and Kulonprogo) for the period June 22nd, 2006 to June 21st, 2011. We show that the shifting pattern is approximately 25% compare with the original “Pranoto mongso”. We also show that the shifting time of the rainy season for each regencies.
Group of Knowledge : Statistik
Original Language : English
Level : Internasional
Status :
Published
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1 196511281991031004-855-Publikasi.pdf
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2 196511281991031004-855-Publikasi.pdf
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3 196511281991031004-855-Publikasi.pdf
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4 196511281991031004-855-Publikasi.pdf
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5 196511281991031004-855-Publikasi.pdf
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6 Email Universitas Gadjah Mada - International Journal of Computing and Optimization.pdf
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7 Climate Change Detection Using Bayesian Change Point Method for Improving the Traditional Cropping Calendar in DIY Province Indonesia.pdf
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