ACADSTAFF UGM
| Title | : | Covid-19 daily forecasting during ramadhan in countries with high muslim population |
| Author | : |
GUMGUM DARMAWAN (1) Prof. Dr.rer.nat. Dedi Rosadi, S.Si., M.Sc. (2) Budi Nurani Ruchjana (3) |
| Date | : | 1 2021 |
| Keyword | : | - - |
| Abstract | : | For Muslims, the month of Ramadhan is a month of full ritual and non-ritual worship, such as Tarawih, Eid al-Fitr, and going home to hometown. These activities are very risky if carried out during the outbreak of Covid-19, as the spread of Covid-19 occurs within a short distance from one person to another. This study aims to look at the Covid-19 movement in Ramadhan for countries with the largest Muslim populations, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Oman, Qatar, Morocco, Bangladesh and India. Model the movement of Covid-19 using the Singular Spectrum Analysis Model. The method used is visual scanning and modelling using the Singular Spectrum Analysis Model. Daily forecasting is done twice as much as the first forecast for the weekly MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) from May 8th, 2020 to May 14th, while the second forecast (Data is not yet known) for the weekly MAPE from May 15th, 2020 to Eid. Based on the results of the graphical exploration, in general, the Muslim-majority countries rose in mining cases in Covid-19 during the month of Ramadhan. The states that declined in the case of Covid-19 were Oman, Qatar and Morocco. The Singular Spectrum Analysis Model with the Long Memory Time Series approach is more accurate than the Alexandrov version of the Auto grouping Model. The overall results of the MAPE. |
| Group of Knowledge | : | |
| Level | : | Internasional |
| Status | : |
Published
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